2026 Housing Projections and Seller Strategy in the Southern Tier

As the fall market settles in, I’m seeing signs that things are shifting here in our local housing market. I recently reviewed our latest MLS “hot sheet,” and one thing stood out: we’re starting to see more expired listings. These are homes that have been on the market for months without selling, something we haven’t seen much of over the past few years. What does the data say? The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently projected that 2025 will end with fewer existing home sales than 2024, about 4.01 million transactions nationwide. However, NAR also expects a significant rebound in 2026, with projections of roughly 4.57 million sales.

Why should you look forward to 2026? Two big factors could drive that rebound. First, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin lowering interest rates as early as this fall. Lower rates will give more buyers the confidence and financial ability to purchase. Second, buyer demand never really went away; it’s just been held back by affordability challenges.

What should sellers do? If your home didn’t sell in 2025, don’t lose hope. Recovery cycles are part of real estate. We’ve seen this before in the 1980s, in 2008, and even during 2020. Markets slow down, then rebound.

The key right now is pricing. Overpricing is the fastest way to end up with an expired listing. Working with an experienced agent to review the numbers can help you position your home to sell.

While 2025 may feel slower, the outlook for 2026 is optimistic. More buyers will return, rates are expected to ease, and homes that are priced well will find eager buyers.

If you’re thinking about selling or buying, now’s the time to talk strategy. Call or send me a message at (607) 795-2904 or vickischamel@kw.com. I’ve had a strong year helping both buyers and sellers, and I’d be happy to help you prepare for what’s next.